Bitcoin and Gold: Safe Haven Assets Amid the Banking Crisis

What happened?

After the start of the banking crises in the US on Friday, March 10 and later in Europe, the migration of capital towards safe-haven assets such as treasury bonds, the yen and gold, which have traditionally acted to that effect. More recently, this behavior was also observed in bitcoin, an asset usually considered risky and directly correlated with the S&P 500. 

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10, along with Signature Bank on March 13, triggered heavy buying of gold and bitcoin together, something unusual in financial markets. Gold rose on Friday, March 10, approximately 1.80%, and on Monday, March 13, it opened with an upward gap, rising more than 1.5%. 

The BTC, for its part, remained stable on Friday, but since it trades during the weekends, it rose almost 5% on Sunday March 12 against the USD and 15.36% on Monday the 13th.

Subsequently, with the Credit Suisse episodes and the recent news of the Deutsche Bank risk in Europe, a feeling of caution remains, although the authorities of all central banks insist on the soundness of the financial system they represent. 

What caused the bullish behavior of gold and BTC? 

Gold always gains value in times of uncertainty, and the most recent rally on Wednesday March 20 hit a one-year high at 2009.40. The bullish rebound of BTC since Sunday, March 12, was directly related to the perception of insecurity that any financial institution represented at that time and the alternative that bitcoin represents by being outside the traditional financial system, with which many investors displaced their capital

from the banks that consider the “hypothetical” security of BTC to be of greater risk in this uncertainty.

 

Bitcoin prices reached just over 28,800 on Wednesday March 22 and remains consolidated as the market calms down and awaits news.

Technical analysis

XAUUSD

After failing to break the 2009.39 resistance, it develops a bearish correction that has already reached last week's buy zone and could revive the bulls once again to attempt a new rally towards resistance.

However, if the current decline breaks the 1933.94 support decisively or with two confirmation moves, it will initiate a more extended macro bearish correction, at least towards 1900. The RSI falls below the midpoint and signals the possibility of a further decline. 

BTC USD

The uptrend remains active despite the consolidation in which the price seems to be stuck since last week, so the quotes will renew the purchases only if they manage to overcome the highs of the range and, in particular, the resistance 28,872.04 with a target at June resistance at 31.959. However, the last resistance broken at 26,476.36 now acts as support, so its break will trigger the start of the next corrective phase of the pair with targets at May support at 25,248.46 and 24,000.